Non-linear Mendelian Randomization Research Articles

Serum urate levels and neurodegenerative outcomes: a prospective cohort study and mendelian randomization analysis of the UK Biobank

BackgroundPrevious studies on the associations between serum urate levels and neurodegenerative outcomes have yielded inconclusive results, and the causality remains unclear. This study aimed to investigate whether urate levels are associated with the risks of Alzheimer’s disease and related dementias (ADRD), Parkinson’s disease (PD), and neurodegenerative deaths.MethodsThis prospective study included 382,182 participants (45.7% men) from the UK Biobank cohort. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the associations between urate levels and risk of neurodegenerative outcomes. In the Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis, urate-related single-nucleotide polymorphisms were identified through a genome-wide association study. Both linear and non-linear MR approaches were utilized to investigate the potential causal associations.ResultsDuring a median follow-up period of 12 years, we documented 5,400 ADRD cases, 2,553 PD cases, and 1,531 neurodegenerative deaths. Observational data revealed that a higher urate level was associated with a decreased risk of ADRD (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.93, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.90, 0.96), PD (HR: 0.87, 95% CI: 0.82, 0.91), and neurodegenerative death (HR: 0.88, 95% CI: 0.83, 0.94). Negative linear associations between urate levels and neurodegenerative events were observed (all P-values for overall < 0.001 and all P-values for non-linearity > 0.05). However, MR analyses yielded no evidence of either linear or non-linear associations between genetically predicted urate levels and the risk of the aforementioned neurodegenerative events.ConclusionAlthough the prospective cohort study demonstrated that elevated urate levels were associated with a reduced risk of neurodegenerative outcomes, MR analyses found no evidence of causality.

Body mass index, waist circumference, and mortality in subjects older than 80 years: a Mendelian randomization study

Abstract Background and Aims Emerging evidence has raised an obesity paradox in observational studies of body mass index (BMI) and health among the oldest-old (aged ≥80 years), as an inverse relationship of BMI with mortality was reported. This study was to investigate the causal associations of BMI, waist circumference (WC), or both with mortality in the oldest-old people in China. Methods A total of 5306 community-based oldest-old (mean age 90.6 years) were enrolled in the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) between 1998 and 2018. Genetic risk scores were constructed from 58 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with BMI and 49 SNPs associated with WC to subsequently derive causal estimates for Mendelian randomization (MR) models. One-sample linear MR along with non-linear MR analyses were performed to explore the associations of genetically predicted BMI, WC, and their joint effect with all-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, and non-CVD mortality. Results During 24 337 person-years of follow-up, 3766 deaths were documented. In observational analyses, higher BMI and WC were both associated with decreased mortality risk [hazard ratio (HR) 0.963, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.955–0.971 for a 1-kg/m2 increment of BMI and HR 0.971 (95% CI 0.950–0.993) for each 5 cm increase of WC]. Linear MR models indicated that each 1 kg/m2 increase in genetically predicted BMI was monotonically associated with a 4.5% decrease in all-cause mortality risk [HR 0.955 (95% CI 0.928–0.983)]. Non-linear curves showed the lowest mortality risk at the BMI of around 28.0 kg/m2, suggesting that optimal BMI for the oldest-old may be around overweight or mild obesity. Positive monotonic causal associations were observed between WC and all-cause mortality [HR 1.108 (95% CI 1.036–1.185) per 5 cm increase], CVD mortality [HR 1.193 (95% CI 1.064–1.337)], and non-CVD mortality [HR 1.110 (95% CI 1.016–1.212)]. The joint effect analyses indicated that the lowest risk was observed among those with higher BMI and lower WC. Conclusions Among the oldest-old, opposite causal associations of BMI and WC with mortality were observed, and a body figure with higher BMI and lower WC could substantially decrease the mortality risk. Guidelines for the weight management should be cautiously designed and implemented among the oldest-old people, considering distinct roles of BMI and WC.

Abstract 2232: Association between sleep characteristics and cancer survival: Findings from the UK Biobank study

Abstract Background Sleep characteristics have been associated with patient outcomes after cancer. We aimed to appraise the causal relationship of chronotype, sleep duration, insomnia, and snoring with cancer survival. Methods This large prospective cohort study enrolled 38350 cancer survivors aged ≥40 years from the UK Biobank between 2004 and 2022. Habitual sleep characteristics were obtained from the self-reported baseline questionnaire, including chronotype, sleep duration, insomnia, and snoring. Cox proportional hazards regression models were applied to evaluate the association between sleep characteristics and cancer survival, then one sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses were further used to validate these causal relationships. In particular, restricted cubic splines (RCS) and non-linear MR analyses were applied to assess the possible nonlinear association between sleep duration and cancer survival. Results Among 38350 study participants (mean [SD] age, 59.8 [7.3] years; 24150 [63.0%] males; 35534 [92.7%] White individuals), 12671 (33.1%) reported evening preference chronotype; 9050 (23.6%) reported short and 3773 (9.8%) reported long sleep duration;12274 (32.0%) reported snoring; and 30426 (79.4%) reported experiencing insomnia sometimes or usually. During up to 18 years of follow-up, 6274 deaths occurred. Multivariable regression models showed that evening preference (HR = 1.09, 95% CI: 1.03 to 1.15), short (HR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.07 to 1.21) and long sleep duration (HR = 1.37, 95% CI: 1.28 to 1.48), insomnia (HR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.09 to 1.21) and snoring (HR = 0.83, 95% CI: 0.78 to 0.87) were associated with death among pan to cancer survivors. Restricted cubic splines suggested nonlinear associations between sleep duration and death after cancer (nonlinear P &amp;lt; 0.001). In the one-sample MR, genetically predicted sleep duration (HR = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.56 to 0.90) and snoring (HR = 1.18, 95% CI: 1.05 to 1.34) demonstrated a reversed cancer survival pattern compared to multivariable regressions. A nonlinear U-shape association between sleep duration and cancer survival was observed in restricted cubic spline analyses (P &amp;lt; 0.001) but not evident when evaluating by nonlinear MR (P &amp;gt; 0.05). Conclusions Evening preference chronotype, insomnia, snoring, and short sleep duration are likely to be causally associated with a higher risk of death among cancer survivors, whilst long sleep duration does not appear to be a causal factor. Citation Format: Jiajing Che, Jiali Lv, Keyu Pan, Tiantian Sun, Chao Cao, Shengxu Li, Tao Zhang, Fuzhong Xue, Lin Yang. Association between sleep characteristics and cancer survival: Findings from the UK Biobank study [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2024; Part 1 (Regular Abstracts); 2024 Apr 5-10; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(6_Suppl):Abstract nr 2232.

Causal association of blood lipids with all-cause and cause-specific mortality risk: a Mendelian randomization study

Dyslipidemia has long been implicated in elevating mortality risk; yet, the precise associations between lipid traits and mortality remained undisclosed. Our study aimed to explore the causal effects of lipid traits on both all-cause and cause-specific mortality. One-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) with linear and nonlinear assumptions was conducted in a cohort of 407,951 European participants from the UK Biobank. Six lipid traits, consisting of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), triglycerides, apolipoprotein A1 (ApoA1), apolipoprotein B (ApoB), and lipoprotein(a), were included to investigate the causal associations with mortality. Two-sample MR was performed to replicate the association between each lipid trait and all-cause mortality. Univariable MR results showed that genetically predicted higher ApoA1 was significantly associated with a decreased all-cause mortality risk (HR[95% CI]:0.93 [0.89–0.97], P value = 0.001), which was validated by the two-sample MR analysis. Higher lipoprotein(a) was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality (1.03 [1.01–1.04], P value = 0.002). Multivariable MR confirmed the direct causal effects of ApoA1 and lipoprotein(a) on all-cause mortality. Meanwhile, nonlinear MR found no evidence for nonlinearity between lipids and all-cause mortality. Our examination into cause-specific mortality revealed a suggestive inverse association between ApoA1 and cancer mortality, a significant positive association between lipoprotein(a) and cardiovascular disease mortality, and a suggestive positive association between lipoprotein(a) and digestive disease mortality. High LDL-C was associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease mortality but a decreased risk of neurodegenerative disease mortality. The findings suggest that implementing interventions to raise ApoA1 and decrease lipoprotein(a) levels may improve overall health outcomes and mitigate cancer and digestive disease mortality.

Appraising associations between signature lipidomic biomarkers and digestive system cancer risk: novel evidences from a prospective cohort study of UK Biobank and Mendelian randomization analyses

BackgroundThe roles of serum lipids on digestive system cancer (DSC) risk were still inconclusive. In this study, we systematically assessed indicative effects of signature lipidomic biomarkers (high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and triglycerides (TG)) on DSC (oesophagus, stomach, colorectal, liver, gallbladder, and pancreas cancers) risk.MethodsHDL-C, LDL-C, and TG concentration measurements were respectively analyzed with enzyme immunoinhibition, enzymatic selective protection, and GPO-POD methods in AU5800 supplied from Beckman Coulter. The diagnoses of DSCs were coded using International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) codes updated until October 2022 in the UK Biobank (UKB). In this study, we assessed phenotypic association patterns between signature lipidomic biomarkers and DSC risk using restricted cubic splines (RCSs) in multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression models. Moreover, linear and nonlinear causal association patterns of signature lipidomic biomarkers with DSC risk were determined by linear and nonlinear Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses.ResultsA median follow-up time of 11.8 years was recorded for 319,568 participants including 6916 DSC cases. A suggestive independent nonlinear phenotypic association was observed between LDL-C concentration and stomach cancer risk (Pnonlinearity < 0.05, Poverall < 0.05). Meanwhile, a remarkable independent linear negative phenotypic association was demonstrated between HDL-C concentration and stomach cancer risk (Pnonlinearity > 0.05, Poverall < 0.008 (0.05/6 outcomes, Bonferroni-adjusted P)), and suggestive independent linear positive associations were observed between HDL-C concentration and colorectal cancer risk, and between TG concentration and gallbladder cancer risk (Pnonlinearity > 0.05, Poverall < 0.05). Furthermore, based on nonlinear and linear MR-based evidences, we observed an suggestive independent negative causal association (hazard ratio (HR) per 1 mmol/L increase: 0.340 (0.137-0.843), P = 0.020) between LDL-C and stomach cancer risk without a nonlinear pattern (Quadratic P = 0.901, Cochran Q P = 0.434). Meanwhile, subgroup and stratified MR analyses both supported the category of LDL-C ≥ 4.1 mmol/L was suggestively protective against stomach cancer risk, especially among female participants (HR: 0.789 (0.637-0.977), P = 0.030) and participants aged 60 years or older (HR: 0.786 (0.638-0.969), P = 0.024), and the category of TG ≥ 2.2 mmol/L concluded to be a suggestive risk factor for gallbladder cancer risk in male participants (HR: 1.447 (1.020-2.052), P = 0.038) and participants aged 60 years or older (HR: 1.264 (1.003-1.593), P = 0.047).ConclusionsOur findings confirmed indicative roles of signature lipidomic biomarkers on DSC risk, notably detecting suggestive evidences for a protective effect of high LDL-C concentration on stomach cancer risk, and a detrimental effect of high TG concentration on gallbladder cancer risk among given participants.

Alcohol consumption and the risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality-a linear and nonlinear Mendelian randomization study.

Many observational studies support light-to-moderate alcohol intake as potentially protective against premature death. We used a genetic approach to evaluate the linear and nonlinear relationships between alcohol consumption and mortality from different underlying causes. We used data from 278 093 white-British UK Biobank participants, aged 37-73 years at recruitment and with data on alcohol intake, genetic variants, and mortality. Habitual alcohol consumption was instrumented by 94 variants. Linear Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses were conducted using five complementary approaches, and nonlinear MR analyses by the doubly-ranked method. There were 20 834 deaths during the follow-up (median 12.6 years). In conventional analysis, the association between alcohol consumption and mortality outcomes was 'J-shaped'. In contrast, MR analyses supported a positive linear association with premature mortality, with no evidence for curvature (Pnonlinearity ≥ 0.21 for all outcomes). The odds ratio [OR] for each standard unit increase in alcohol intake was 1.27 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.16-1.39) for all-cause mortality, 1.30 (95% CI 1.10-1.53) for cardiovascular disease, 1.20 (95% CI 1.08-1.33) for cancer, and 2.06 (95% CI 1.36-3.12) for digestive disease mortality. These results were consistent across pleiotropy-robust methods. There was no clear evidence for an association between alcohol consumption and mortality from respiratory diseases or COVID-19 (1.32, 95% CI 0.96-1.83 and 1.46, 95% CI 0.99-2.16, respectively; Pnonlinearity ≥ 0.21). Higher levels of genetically predicted alcohol consumption had a strong linear association with an increased risk of premature mortality with no evidence for any protective benefit at modest intake levels.

Dose-Response Associations of Lipid Traits With Coronary Artery Disease and Mortality

Apolipoprotein B (apoB), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and triglycerides (TG) are associated with coronary artery disease (CAD). However, trial evidence for the association of intensive LDL-C lowering and TG lowering with mortality is less definitive. To investigate the associations of apoB, LDL-C, and TG with CAD and mortality, both overall and by sex and age, and to characterize the shapes of these associations. This genetic association study used linear and nonlinear mendelian randomization (MR) to analyze a population-based cohort of individuals of European ancestry from the UK Biobank, which recruited participants from 2006 to 2010 with follow-up information updated until September 2021. Data analysis occurred from December 2022 to November 2023. Genetically predicted apoB, LDL-C, and TG. The primary outcomes were CAD, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality. Genetic associations with CAD were calculated using logistic regression, associations with all-cause mortality using Cox proportional hazards regression, and associations with cause-specific mortality using cause-specific Cox proportional hazards regression with censoring for other causes of mortality. This study included 347 797 participants (mean [SD] age, 57.2 [8.0] years; 188 330 female [54.1%]). There were 23 818 people who developed CAD and 23 848 people who died. Genetically predicted apoB was positively associated with risk of CAD (odds ratio [OR], 1.65 per SD increase; 95% CI 1.57-1.73), all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.11; 95% CI, 1.06-1.16), and cardiovascular mortality (HR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.24-1.50), with some evidence for larger associations in male participants than female participants. Findings were similar for LDL-C. Genetically predicted TG was positively associated with CAD (OR, 1.60; 95% CI 1.52-1.69), all-cause mortality (HR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.03-1.13), and cardiovascular mortality (HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.09-1.34); however, sensitivity analyses suggested evidence of pleiotropy. The association of genetically predicted TG with CAD persisted but it was no longer associated with mortality outcomes after controlling for apoB. Nonlinear MR suggested that all these associations were monotonically increasing across the whole observed distribution of each lipid trait, with no diminution at low lipid levels. Such patterns were observed irrespective of sex or age. In this genetic association study, apoB (or, equivalently, LDL-C) was associated with increased CAD risk, all-cause mortality, and cardiovascular mortality, all in a dose-dependent way. TG may increase CAD risk independent of apoB, although the possible presence of pleiotropy is a limitation. These insights highlight the importance of apoB (or, equivalently, LDL-C) lowering for reducing cardiovascular morbidity and mortality across its whole distribution.

Serum 25-Hydroxyvitamin D and Risk of Disability in Activities of Daily Living among the Oldest-Old: An Observational and Mendelian Randomization Study

BackgroundVitamin D deficiency and disability are both prevalent among older adults. However, the association between them has rarely been investigated in the oldest-old subjects (aged ≥80 y), and the causality remains unclear. ObjectiveThis study aimed to elucidate the causal effect of vitamin D on the incident risk of disability in activities of daily living (ADL) among Chinese oldest-old based on the 2012–2018 Chinese Healthy Ageing and Biomarkers Cohort Study. MethodsSerum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentrations and ADL status at baseline and follow-up interviews were documented. Cox regression models were applied among 1427 oldest-old (mean age, 91.2 y) with normal baseline ADL status. One sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses were performed on a subset of 941 participants with qualified genetic data, using a 25(OH)D-associated genetic risk score as the genetic instrument. ResultsDuring a median follow-up of 3.4 y, 231 participants developed disability in ADL. Serum 25(OH)D concentration was inversely associated with the risk of disability in ADL [per 10 nmol/L increase hazard ratio (HR) 0.85; 95% CI: 0.75, 0.96]. Consistent results from MR analyses showed that a 10 nmol/L increment in genetically predicted 25(OH)D concentration corresponded to a 20% reduced risk of ADL disability (HR 0.80; 95% CI: 0.68, 0.94). Nonlinear MR demonstrated a monotonic declining curve, with the HRs exhibiting a more pronounced reduction among individuals with 25(OH)D concentrations below 50 nmol/L. Subgroup analyses showed that the associations were more distinct among females and those with poorer health conditions. ConclusionsOur study supports an inverse causal relationship between serum 25(OH)D concentration and the risk of disability in ADL among Chinese oldest-old. This protective effect was more distinct, especially for participants with vitamin D deficiency. Appropriate measures for improving vitamin D might help reduce the incidence of physical disability in this specific age group.

Association between alcohol consumption and sleep traits: observational and mendelian randomization studies in the UK biobank.

Previous studies have shown that excessive alcohol consumption is associated with poor sleep. However, the health risks of light-to-moderate alcohol consumption in relation to sleep traits (e.g., insomnia, snoring, sleep duration and chronotype) remain undefined, and their causality is still unclear in the general population. To identify the association between alcohol consumption and multiple sleep traits using an observational and Mendelian randomization (MR) design. Observational analyses and one-sample MR (linear and nonlinear) were performed using clinical and individual-level genetic data from the UK Biobank (UKB). Two-sample MR was assessed using summary data from genome-wide association studies from the UKB and other external consortia. Phenotype analyses were externally validated using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2017-2018). Data analysis was conducted from January 2022 to October 2022. The association between alcohol consumption and six self-reported sleep traits (short sleep duration, long sleep duration, chronotype, snoring, waking up in the morning, and insomnia) were analysed. This study included 383,357 UKB participants (mean [SD] age, 57.0 [8.0] years; 46% male) who consumed a mean (SD) of 9.0 (10.0) standard drinks (one standard drink equivalent to 14 g of alcohol) per week. In the observational analyses, alcohol consumption was significantly associated with all sleep traits. Light-moderate-heavy alcohol consumption was linearly linked to snoring and the evening chronotype but nonlinearly associated with insomnia, sleep duration, and napping. In linear MR analyses, a 1-SD (14 g) increase in genetically predicted alcohol consumption was associated with a 1.14-fold (95% CI, 1.07-1.22) higher risk of snoring (P < 0.001), a 1.28-fold (95% CI, 1.20-1.37) higher risk of evening chronotype (P < 0.001) and a 1.24-fold (95% CI, 1.13-1.36) higher risk of difficulty waking up in the morning (P < 0.001). Nonlinear MR analyses did not reveal significant results after Bonferroni adjustment. The results of the two-sample MR analyses were consistent with those of the one-sample MR analyses, but with a slightly attenuated overall estimate. Our findings suggest that even low levels of alcohol consumption may affect sleep health, particularly by increasing the risk of snoring and evening chronotypes. The negative effects of alcohol consumption on sleep should be made clear to the public in order to promote public health.

Effects of uric acid on ischemic diseases, stratified by lipid levels: a drug-target, nonlinear Mendelian randomization study

Although uric acid-lowering agents such as xanthine oxidase inhibitors have potential cardioprotective effects, studies on their use in preventing cardiovascular diseases are lacking. We investigated the genetically proxied effects of reducing uric acid on ischemic cardiovascular diseases in a lipid-level-stratified population. We performed drug-target Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses using UK Biobank data to select genetic instruments within a uric acid-lowering gene, xanthine dehydrogenase (XDH), and construct genetic scores. For nonlinear MR analyses, individuals were stratified by lipid level. Outcomes included acute myocardial infarction (AMI), ischemic heart disease, cerebral infarction, transient cerebral ischemic attack, overall ischemic disease, and gout. We included 474,983 non-gout individuals with XDH-associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms. The XDH-variant-induced uric acid reduction was associated with reduced risk of gout (odds ratio [OR], 0.85; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.78–0.93; P < 0.001), cerebral infarction (OR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.75–0.98; P = 0.023), AMI (OR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.66–0.94; P = 0.010) in individuals with triglycerides ≥ 188.00 mg/dL, and cerebral infarction in individuals with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) ≤ 112.30 mg/dL (OR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.61–0.96; P = 0.020) or LDL-C of 136.90–157.40 mg/dL (OR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.49–0.92; P = 0.012). XDH-variant-induced uric acid reduction lowers the risk of gout, AMI for individuals with high triglycerides, and cerebral infarction except for individuals with high LDL-C, highlighting the potential heterogeneity in the protective effects of xanthine oxidase inhibitors for treating AMI and cerebral infarction depending on the lipid profiles.

Vitamin D and human health: evidence from Mendelian randomization studies.

We summarized the current evidence on vitamin D and major health outcomes from Mendelian randomization (MR) studies. PubMed and Embase were searched for original MR studies on vitamin D in relation to any health outcome from inception to September 1, 2022. Nonlinear MR findings were excluded due to concerns about the validity of the statistical methods used. A meta-analysis was preformed to synthesize study-specific estimates after excluding overlapping samples, where applicable. The methodological quality of the included studies was evaluated according to the STROBE-MR checklist. A total of 133 MR publications were eligible for inclusion in the analyses. The causal association between vitamin D status and 275 individual outcomes was examined. Linear MR analyses showed genetically high 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) concentrations were associated with reduced risk of multiple sclerosis incidence and relapse, non-infectious uveitis and scleritis, psoriasis, femur fracture, leg fracture, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, anorexia nervosa, delirium, heart failure, ovarian cancer, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, dyslipidemia, and bacterial pneumonia, but increased risk of Behçet's disease, Graves' disease, kidney stone disease, fracture of radium/ulna, basal cell carcinoma, and overall cataracts. Stratified analyses showed that the inverse association between genetically predisposed 25(OH)D concentrations and multiple sclerosis risk was significant and consistent regardless of the genetic instruments GIs selected. However, the associations with most of the other outcomes were only pronounced when using genetic variants not limited to those in the vitamin D pathway as GIs. The methodological quality of the included MR studies was substantially heterogeneous. Current evidence from linear MR studies strongly supports a causal role of vitamin D in the development of multiple sclerosis. Suggestive support for a number of other health conditions could help prioritize conditions where vitamin D may be beneficial or harmful.

Nonlinear relationship between body mass index and serum uric acid: An observational and Mendelian randomization study among Chinese adults

Background and aimsConflicting evidence exists on the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and serum uric acid (SUA), and importantly, the causal role of BMI in SUA remains unclear. We aimed to evaluate the BMI-SUA relationship and its causality among Chinese adults using observational and Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses. Methods and resultsStudy included 6641 adults from East China. A genetic risk score based on 14 BMI-associated East Asian variants was formulated. One-sample MR and non-linear MR analyses assessed the causal link between BMI_GRS and SUA levels. Mean BMI levels were 24.8 (SD 3.4) and 24.3 (SD 3.6) kg/m2 in men and women, respectively. Spline models revealed gender-specific BMI-SUA associations: a reverse J-shape for men and a J-shape for women (P-values for nonlinearity <0.05). In men, BMI showed a positive correlation with SUA levels when BMI was below 29.6 kg/m2 (beta coefficient 19.1 [95 % CI 15.1, 23.0] μmol/L per 1-SD increase in BMI), while in women, BMI exhibited a negative correlation with SUA levels when the BMI was less than 21.7 kg/m2 (beta coefficient −12.9 [95 % CI -21.6, −4.1] μmol/L) and a positive correlation when BMI exceeded 21.7 kg/m2 (beta coefficient 13.3 [95 % CI 10.9, 15.8] μmol/L). Furthermore, MR analysis suggested non-linear BMI-SUA link in women but not men. ConclusionOur study indicates a non-linear correlation between BMI and SUA in both genders. It is noteworthy that in women, this correlation may have a causal nature. Nevertheless, further longitudinal investigations are required to authenticate our findings.

Kidney Function Measures and Mortality: A Mendelian Randomization Study

Individuals with a low estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) are at a high risk of death. However, the causes underpinning this association are largely uncertain. This study aimed to assess the causal relationship of low eGFR with all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Retrospective cohort study incorporating Mendelian randomization (MR). Individual-level data from 436,214 White participants (54.3% female; aged 56.8±8.0 years) included in the UK Biobank. eGFR estimated using cystatin C (eGFRcyst). The outcomes of interest included all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, cancer mortality, infection mortality, and other-cause mortality. Cox proportional hazards analysis for the conventional observational analyses; linear and nonlinear MR analyses implemented using genetic allele scores as instrumental variables representing kidney function to estimate the effect of kidney function on the survival outcomes. During a median follow-up of 12.1 years, there were 30,489 deaths, 6,098 of which were attributed to cardiovascular events, 15,538 to cancer, 1,516 to infection, and 7,227 to other events. In the conventional observational analysis, eGFRcyst exhibited a nonlinear association with all the outcomes. MR analysis suggested that a genetically predicted lower eGFRcyst was linearly associated with a higher rate of cardiovascular mortality (HR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.18-1.75) across the entire measurement range (every 10-mL/min/1.73m2 decrement). Nonetheless, no causal associations between eGFRcyst and all-cause mortality (HR, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.98-1.17) or any types of noncardiovascular mortality were detected. Potential misclassification of the actual cause of death, a nonrepresentative sample, and potential error in the interpretation of the magnitude of associations generated in MR analyses. These findings suggest a potential causal association between low eGFR and cardiovascular mortality in the general population, but no causal relationship with all-cause mortality or noncardiovascular mortality was observed. Further studies in other populations are warranted to confirm these findings. This study investigated the existence of a causal relationship between lower kidney function and death of different causes. Using data from 436,214 people in the United Kingdom, we applied conventional statistical analyses and those incorporating genetic data to implement Mendelian randomization, an approach that estimates causal associations. The observational analysis showed a nonlinear association between kidney function and various types of mortality outcomes. However, Mendelian randomization analysis suggested a linear increase in the risk of cardiovascular mortality with lower kidney function, but no causal link between the level of kidney function and all-cause or noncardiovascular mortality was identified. Managing kidney health may help reduce cardiovascular mortality, but caution is needed in interpreting the magnitudes of these results. Further validation in other populations and in those with advanced kidney failure is needed.

Association between sleep traits and biological aging risk: a Mendelian randomization study based on 157 227 cases and 179 332 controls.

To investigate whether sleep traits are associated with the risk of biological aging using a case-control design with Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses. We studied 336 559 participants in the UK Biobank cohort, including 157 227 cases of accelerated biological aging and 179 332 controls. PhenoAge, derived from clinical traits, estimated biological ages, and the discrepancies from chronological age were defined as age accelerations (PhenoAgeAccel). Sleep behaviors were assessed with a standardized questionnaire. propensity score matching matched control participants to age-accelerated participants, and a conditional multivariable logistic regression model estimated odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Causal relationships between sleep traits and PhenoAgeAccel were explored using linear and nonlinear MR methods. A U-shaped association was found between sleep duration and PhenoAgeAccel risk. Short sleepers had a 7% higher risk (OR = 1.07; 95% CI: 1.03 to 1.11), while long sleepers had an 18% higher risk (OR = 1.18; 95% CI: 1.15 to 1.22), compared to normal sleepers (6-8 hours/day). Evening chronotype was linked to higher PhenoAgeAccel risk than morning chronotype (OR = 1.14; 95% CI: 1.10 to 1.18), while no significant associations were found for insomnia or snoring. Morning chronotype had a protective effect on PhenoAgeAccel risk (OR = 0.87, 95% CI: 0.79 to 0.95) per linear MR analysis. Genetically predicted sleep duration showed a U-shaped relationship with PhenoAgeAccel, suggesting a nonlinear association (pnonlinear < 0.001). The study suggests that improving sleep can slow biological aging, highlighting the importance of optimizing sleep as an intervention to mitigate aging's adverse effects.

Observational and genetic associations of adiposity with cardiopulmonary multimorbidity: Linear and nonlinear Mendelian randomization analysis.

Whether adiposity traits are causal risk factors for cardiopulmonary multimorbidity (CP-MM) remains largely unknown. The aim of this study was to examine the causal role of adiposity traits in the development of CP-MM. This study involved 408,886 participants from the UK Biobank who had complete phenotypic and genetic data. Cox regression and Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses were conducted separately for observational and causal associations. During a median follow-up of 8.7 years, 1492 incident CP-MM were ascertained. In observational analysis, individuals with obesity had a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.51 (95% confidence intervals [CI]: 1.30-1.75) for developing CP-MM, compared with those with normal body mass index (BMI). Restricted cubic spline analyses showed a U-shaped relationship between continuous BMI and CP-MM (p < 0.001), whereas WHRadjBMI exhibited a linear relationship (p = 0.828). Joint analysis revealed that maintaining ideal waist-hip ratio (WHR) in adults with overweight is still effective in preventing CP-MM. In linear MR analysis, 1 kg/m2 increase in genetically predicted BMI and per 1% higher in genetically predicted WHRadjBMI was associated with 9% and 10% higher risk for incident CP-MM, respectively. Nonlinear MR analyses demonstrated linearity between genetically predicted BMI or WHRadjBMI and CP-MM. Adiposity may play a causal role in CP-MM development and represent a promising approach for multimorbidity prevention.

Ethnic-specific associations between body mass index and gastric cancer: a Mendelian randomization study in European and Korean populations.

Given the uncertainties surrounding the associations in previous epidemiological studies, we conducted linear and nonlinear Mendelian randomization (MR) studies to evaluate whether body mass index (BMI) associated with gastric cancer (GC) risk in European and Korean. Genome-wide association study-summary statistics were used from the Pan-UK Biobank, the Genetic Investigation of Anthropometric Traits consortium, the K-CHIP consortium, and BioBank Japan. BMI-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were used as instrumental variables (IVs) in MR to identify the association between BMI and GC. Both linear and nonlinear MR analyses were performed. Sensitivity analyses were also conducted for individuals below or above a BMI of 24kg/m2. The study used 22 and 55 SNPs as IVs for BMI in European and Korean populations, respectively. Genetically predicted BMI was positively associated with GC risk in the European population (Odds ratio per 1kg/m2 increase; 95% CI = 1.17; 1.01-1.36 using simple median method), but no significant association was observed in the Korean population. However, the nonlinear MR identified a U-shaped association between BMI and GC in the Korean population, with both low and high BMIs associated with increased GC risk. A BMI of 24kg/m2 presented the lowest risk. Sensitivity analyses did not yield any genome-wide significant SNPs. While MR analysis suggests a linear association between BMI and GC in those of European ancestry, nonlinear MR hints at a U-shaped association in Koreans. This suggests the association between BMI and GC risk may vary according to ethnic ancestry.

Challenges in undertaking nonlinear Mendelian randomization.

Mendelian randomization (MR) is a widely used method that exploits the unique properties of germline genetic variation to strengthen causal inference in relationships between exposures and outcomes. Nonlinear MR allows estimation of the shape of these relationships. In a previous paper, the authors applied linear and nonlinear MR to estimate the effect of BMI on mortality in UK Biobank, providing evidence for a J-shaped association. However, it is now clear that there are problems with widely used nonlinear MR methods, which draws attention to the likely erroneous nature of the conclusions regarding the shapes of several explored relationships. Here, the authors explore the utility and likely biases of these nonlinear MR methods with the use of a negative control design. Although there remains good evidence for a causal effect of higher BMI increasing the risk of mortality, the pattern of this association across different levels of BMI requires further characterization.

Letter to the Editor From Richmond et al: "Sleep Duration and Visceral Adipose Tissue: Linear and Nonlinear Mendelian Randomization Analyses".

Letter to the Editor From Richmond et al: "Sleep Duration and Visceral Adipose Tissue: Linear and Nonlinear Mendelian Randomization Analyses".

The effect of metformin on urate metabolism: Findings from observational and Mendelian randomization analyses.

To evaluate the effect of metformin on urate metabolism. Using the UK Biobank, we first performed association analyses of metformin use with urate levels, risk of hyperuricaemia and incident gout in patients with diabetes. To explore the causal effect of metformin on urate and gout, we identified genetic variants proxying the glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c)-lowering effect of metformin targets and conducted a two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) utilizing the urate and gout genetic summary-level data from the CKDGen (n = 288 649) and the FinnGen cohort. We conducted two-step MR to explore the mediation effect of body mass index and systolic blood pressure. We also performed non-linear MR in the UK Biobank (n = 414 055) to show the results across HbA1c levels. In 18 776 patients with type 2 diabetes in UK Biobank, metformin use was associated with decreased urate [β = -4.3 μmol/L, 95% confidence interval (CI) -7.0, -1.7, p = .001] and reduced hyperuricaemia risk (odds ratio = 0.87, 95% CI 0.79, 0.96, p = .004), but not gout. Genetically proxied averaged HbA1c-lowering effects of metformin targets, equivalent to a 0.62% reduction in HbA1c, was associated with reduced urate (β = -12.5 μmol/L, 95% CI -21.4, -4.2, p = .004). Body mass index significantly mediated this association (proportion mediated = 33.0%, p = .002). Non-linear MR results suggest a linear trend of the effect of metformin on urate reduction across various HbA1c levels. The effect of metformin may reduce urate levels but not incident gout in the general population.

Body Mass Index and the Risk of Rheumatic Disease: Linear and Nonlinear Mendelian Randomization Analyses.

Although the association between obesity and risk of rheumatic disease is well established, the precise causal relation has not been conclusively proven. Here, we estimate the causal effect of body mass index (BMI) on the risk of developing 5 different rheumatic diseases. Linear and nonlinear mendelian randomization (MR) were used to estimate the effect of BMI on risk of rheumatic disease, and sex-specific effects were identified. Analyses were performed in 361,952 participants from the UK Biobank cohort for 5 rheumatic diseases: rheumatoid arthritis (n=8,381 cases), osteoarthritis (n=87,430), psoriatic arthropathy (n=933), gout (n=13,638), and inflammatory spondylitis (n=4,328). Using linear MR, we found that 1 SD increase in BMI increases the incidence rate for rheumatoid arthritis (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.52 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.36-1.69]), osteoarthritis (IRR 1.49 [95% CI 1.43-1.55]), psoriatic arthropathy (IRR 1.80 [95% CI 1.31-2.48]), gout (IRR 1.73 [95% CI 1.56-1.92]), and inflammatory spondylitis (IRR 1.34 [95% CI 1.14-1.57]) in all individuals. BMI was found to be a stronger risk factor in women compared to men for psoriatic arthropathy (P for sex interaction=3.3 × 10-4 ) and gout (P for sex interaction=4.3 × 10-3 ), and the effect on osteoarthritis was stronger in premenopausal compared to postmenopausal women (P = 1.8 × 10-3 ). Nonlinear effects of BMI were identified for osteoarthritis and gout in men, and for gout in women. The nonlinearity for gout was also more extreme in men compared to women (P = 0.03). Higher BMI causes an increased risk for rheumatic disease, an effect that is more pronounced in women for both gout and psoriatic arthropathy. The novel sex- and BMI-specific causal effects identified here provide further insight into rheumatic disease etiology and mark an important step toward personalized medicine.